On 19 May 2008, in my article entitled“The Past, the Present and the Future: Consequences of American Foreign Policy,” I made a number of predictions. Prediction number four was that, “Hezbollah has been gaining strength and will continue to gain strength. It will become the major player in the Middle East and subsequent negotiations with Israel”. It now appears that my prediction is already coming true. Israel is considering talking with the so called “terrorist organization” Hezbollah. This is not a choice Israel likes but it is ground reality. The ground reality which I predicted was that Hezbollah will become stronger. Hence, Israel cannot continue to ignore Hezbollah.
Many readers and followers of current news would have noticed the first signs of the leveling of the playing field (war zone really) when Hezbollah outmaneuvered the Israeli army in the south of Lebanon. The Israeli casualties were higher then they were for the six day war of 1967. At the end of the six day war Israel had a lot of trophies and kudos. At the end of this war Israel did not have anything to show as a gain, not even a moral high ground. It had losses. And the losses continue. Over the last few days there have been media leaks which show that Israel is talking with its neighbors. All of its neighbors! It is not only talking with Syria, it is also talking with Hezbollah, the Egyptians and Iranians. When Israel was strong it considered Hezbollah a terrorist organization. Now that Israel is weaker it is beginning to make compromises to Hezbollah.
I predicted that it would be best for Israel to live in the Middle East in peaceful co-existence rather than as a bully with sophisticated technology. If Israel can respect and compensate the people of Palestine then a policy peaceful co-existence would not only be possible it would be a reality. There will be dividends for both groups of people. The days when superior technology facilitated the “conquest and subjugation” of other people, the losers, are long gone. In this day and age the losers quickly learn the art of warfare and soon get even. Suppressed people are more willing to fight back using the same technologies which had been used by the conqueror. In this day and age this is possible because information about the latest technology is easily available on the net. Further, most people have a basic level of education. The conquered person has more emotional energy and suppressed anger. It is for reasons like this that the conflict in the Middle East is not coming to an end. The end will come when the emotional energies and anger are neutralized. This can only happen through negotiations and peaceful co-existence. As the two sides, become more evenly matched then a negotiated settlement will be reached. Any negotiations which occur when the two opposing sides are not evenly matched are meaningless because the agreements reached are usually lob sided i.e. more favorable toward the winner.
My prediction number eight was that there will be no peace in the Middle East until the rights of the Palestinian People are restored. The United Nations, President Bush or Mr. Abbas do not have the right to give away lands which they do not own. It seems that Israel is slowly edging toward this position. Signs of this include the negotiations which are beginning to take place between Israel and its neighbors in the Middle East including Hezbollah, Hamas, Iran, Syria and Egypt.
Last but not least the current leadership of Israel is weak and there is a real possibility that these negotiations will not go anywhere. This does not mean that it is the end of the road. My prediction is that Hezbollah is getting stronger and it will continue to get stronger. Yes, Iran is getting stronger too and it is my prediction that Iran will make the atom bomb with in five years and that it will not threaten Israel. The present ground reality is that Iran is threatening Israel. The situation will change drastically once Iran has the atom bomb. My prediction is that Iran will have the atom bomb within six years if not sooner. I do not see Iran “giving up its right to make an atom bomb” even though America and Israel oppose it.
