While the final polls have been taken and all that remains are the final votes on Tuesday and then their tallying, the keys to understanding who will win depend on the poll closing times in different swing states. The swing states will no doubt bear the trend that the race is close or it is a deciding factor for one of the candidates. Here's what to watch for:
Swing States
1. 7:00pm (est)
Virginia and Indiana polls close.
2. 7:30pm (est)
Ohio and North Carolina polls close.
3. 8:00pm (est)
Pennsylvania, Missouri, and Florida polls close.
4. 9:00pm (est)
Colorado and New Mexico polls close.
5. 10:00pm (est)
Iowa and Nevada polls close.
Analysis:
If Obama is winning two or three swing states early on, by large enough margins, the race will be over sooner rather than later in the night. If Obama wins at least three of the swing states before the 9:00pm polls close (say Ohio, North Carolina, and Virginia), McCain will have no chance of winning. McCain needs to win all of the swing states except Pennsylvania and perhaps one other before the 9:00pm polls close to have any chance later in the night. If McCain does win the swing states earlier on in the east and midwest, the election will come down to Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico whose polls don't close till around 9 or 10pm (est). All in all, we should know between 8 and 9pm whether the race is close or a blowout. Just a reminder: a candidate only needs 270 electoral votes to win the election. Have fun sweating it out!
