As per American analysts, the strategic implications of a Maoist take-over of Nepal are:
Nepal becomes a total client state of China. A Maoist Nepal under Chinese tutelage would be a serious disruptive factor for US global strategies in the region.
Maoist-insurgents ruled Nepal would inextricably get dragged into Islamic terrorist organizations linkages, besides China's policies towards the Islamic world.
India needs to realise the gravity of the strategic implications, specific to India, namely:
A China-aligned Nepal, removes an important buffer state between India and China. India would have to militarily man the India-Nepal border in strength, which may eat up two to three infantry divisions.
A China-aligned Nepal adds to the existing China-client states in South Asia i.e. Pakistan and Bangladesh. It would be a very unholy trinity with not only the Western and Eastern flanks of India under China's influence, but the Northern flank too added.
For the majority peoples of India, the only Hindu kingdom in the world would slide down ignobly into a Chinese-Islamic coalition in South Asia.
India must therefore, immediately, cast away its existing reluctance and inhibitions to act firmly, even militarily, to prevent a Maoist take-over of Nepal. Fortunately in Nepal's current Maoist-threatened environment, convergence of security interests exist between the United States and India. India must therefore jointly work with the United States to protect the sovereignty of the Nepalese state against a Maoist takeover.
It was so stated by US Assistant Secretary of State, Christiana Rocca during her recent visit to New Delhi: “ Working in tandem, our governments can help Nepal defeat the Maoists threat and re-establish democratic institutions responsive to the needs of the people".
India must therefore act forcefully and unapologetically in Nepal forthwith to secure her national interests. It would be a convincing demonstration of what this paper espouses: “ India will intervene forcefully to secure her national interests in the region”.
Bangladesh
For far too long has India been oblivious to the playing of the "Indian-Card" (for or against) in Bangladesh's domestic politics. For far too long has India tolerated the use of Bangladesh as a springboard for Pakistan's strategic de-estabilisation of India's North-Eastern states. India could borrow a leaf from Myanmar's dealing with the Rohinggya problem emanating from Saudi based organizations in Bangladesh. Al Qaeda's tentacles exist in Bangladesh.
Bangladesh too is a fit case where Indian foreign policy objectives could gain a convergence with United States national interests. The China-Bangladesh Defence Cooperation Agreement adds an additional dimension to the other threats as analysed in an earlier Paper of this author.
India needs to draw red-lines in terms of India's national interests which Bangladesh must not overstep with impunity. In tandem, India through its big business houses should integrate Bangladesh into more commercial linkages. Increased Indian economic investments in Bangladesh could generates thousands of job and remove the root cause of Bangladesh's instability and move towards Islamic fundamentalism.
Sri Lanka
India's national interests demand maintaining the unity and sovereignty of the Sri Lanka nation state. India's domestic Tamil politics should not become the touch stone of India's policies towards Sri Lanka. India needs to react forcefully to ensure that Sri Lanka remains a unified state with a set up that would meet the just aspirations of a majority of Tamils.
The above proposition entails once again the forging of mutual national interests convergence of India and the United States Sri Lanka is an important component of United States India Ocean strategy and it is felt that United States-India convergences exist already. Joint USA-India strategies and foreign policies towards Sri Lanka would be helpful in counter-acting Chinese and Pakistani overtures to wean away Sri Lanka from India's influence.
Concluding Observations
India's emergence as a regional power and a key global player depends largely on her image and standing in the South Asian neighbourhood. If India cannot effectively generate and ensure her key status in South Asia, how can the world are convinced that it can carve influence farther field.
India's nuclear weapons, space programmes, missiles development and her overwhelming superiority in military strength are of no use, if the South Asian neighbourhood takes India for granted and merrily tramples on India's national interests and her image. India needs to introduce an element of "unilateralism" in her state-craft in South Asia.
Fortunately for India, with the exception of Pakistan, joint convergences of national interests exist between United States and India. This could greatly facilitate India's forceful assertion in South Asian affairs for greater regional good. Once this is achieved, a marginalised Pakistan in South Asia, may see the dawn of South Asia's strategic realities.
The strength of any foreign policy depends also on the professional abilities of those who implement it, both at Headquarters and in the field. With a view to ensuring this, the Foreign Service Institute was established to undertake specialist training for entrants into the Indian Foreign Service, and conduct several other specialist courses for Indian and foreign diplomats.
It is difficult to enumerate the achievements of a country's foreign policy in exactly quantifiable terms. With this as a qualification, it would be a fair assessment to make that Indian foreign policy has sought to preserve, with conviction and consistency, the principles that were enunciated by the founding fathers of the Republic, both in the development of bilateral relations, and in international forums, where our views have won recognition and respect. A significant factor underlying this achievement has been the consensus, cutting across political divides, within the country, on what the basic aims and objectives of Indian foreign policy should be.
As India could gain technological tie ups, international trade has been boosted. Corporate sectors like Reliance explored business opportunities in various countries to promote Indian technology, which in turn, will help to develop economy.
India has achieved the distinction of avoiding conflicts. Though relation with Pakistan was spoiled due to the terrorist activities in Kashmir border, India tries to resolve issues peacefully.
