Like the Taiwanese, the Mainlanders have also taken steps to promote their position. Their actions have generally been to create a military presence around Taiwan, and threaten them with their military might. In 2000 they conducted military exercises in the Taiwan Strait. During this time they claimed that they were prepared to use force if the Taiwan “province” declared its independence. Also, the Chinese military has aimed 784 missiles at Taiwan that could fully disable its communication and transportation in 10 hours (10).
Even the United States cannot shake the Chinese determination to hold Taiwan. A major Chinese general, General Zhu, says that China is prepared to use nuclear weapons against the United States if it militarily intervenes in the Taiwanese conflict (11). They say that they will hold Taiwan at whatever cost and it will never be allowed to split form China. Taiwan is nothing more than a rogue province whose leash has been let too loose.
US Position
As a third party, the United States' opinion in this matter is less important as China and Taiwan's, but if it weren't for the United States, China could have easily brought Taiwan under its control and ended the issue by now. Officially, the United States sides with the PRC by not holding relations with Taiwan and supporting the “One China Policy”, but the United States has unofficially acted in ways that show that they still partly support the ROC. This dual relationship has caused the PRC to question its position toward the US.
Up to 1979, the United States had been allied with the ROC because of the simple fact that they were a democratic society, and the PRC was a communist government. In 1979, President Nixon normalized the relationship with the Communist government, and switched diplomatic relations from the ROC to the PRC (12). It also adopted the “One China Policy” which means that the US equates China with the "Peoples Republic of China". (13).
Although the United States officially holds relations with the ROC, it still has unofficial economic ties with the US because of their extensive history of friendship (12). These economic ties include the sale of various arms to Taiwan, which directly undermines the PRC's authority. In 1998, the US sold $300 million worth of navy frigates armed with state of the art weaponry to help in modernizing the Taiwanese navy (14). Furthermore, even though the official foreign relations of the US is only with the PRC, US law still states that Taiwan is officially a sovereign state and should be treated as such (13). In this way, the US has assured that it can remain friendly with the PRC, while still enjoying the economic gains of Taiwan.
Although the US has switched relations to the PRC, the PRC is still at shaky ground with the US. The PRC continues to make sure that the United States does not intervene in the situation. The United States has stood by through these threats so as to not uproot the balance of the situation.
These three positions have created a delicate situation in which any shift in the balance can change the situation completely. One misstep from Taiwan or the United States could cause the highly determined PRC to react in a violent way. There are many possibilities in which this confrontation could end, but the highest possibility is that the Chinese will finally have had enough and take full control of Taiwan. The Chinese are completely determined to keep Taiwan under their rule, as they showed in their statements about nuclear retaliation. Moreover, their actions, like setting up missiles around Taiwan and conducting military exercises, further these statements.
Recommendations for Taiwan (ROC)
The main point the Taiwanese need realize is that they are toying with the new superpower, and these are dangerous actions. They don't seem to understand that the PRC is completely determined about this issue, and that they also have 99% of all international support. Although the Taiwanese have the right to remain a sovereign state, in the end, they cannot beat the PRC at a game of cat and mouse. They need to figure out how they can resolve this issue with the most they can get out of it. It is an undeniable fact the PRC will one day re-conquer Taiwan, so they need to make the most of the “one country, two systems” idea, in order to prosper under a capitalist economy. Hong Kong has reunited with China in 1997, and their economic growth has continued to soar as before. Taiwan needs to follow in Hong Kong's footsteps to continue their economic prosperity.
Recommendations for China
With military superiority and international support, China has the obvious upper hand in this conflict. China just needs to find a way to pressure Taiwan into submission without the loss of human lives, which is all they can lose. The worst-case scenario for China is if this issue escalates into a larger military conflict in which they must forcefully retake Taiwan. Furthermore, the Chinese need to be cautious about US intervention, which could create a confrontation much larger than Taiwan is worth. If China can find a way to peacefully resolve this issue, then it will also be better in the future, with regards to the relationship with the Taiwan province. If a violent conflict occurs, the Taiwanese will be more likely to act with hostility toward China and attempt to regain their independence. Moreover, a military conflict would not fit nicely with China's image toward the rest of the world. If China does not strive for a non-violent resolution, the results could be, to say the least, unpleasant.
Recommendations for the US
The United States needs to realize that it is not the most important actor in this conflict and needs to keep its nose out of these affairs. They have found a way to temporarily deal with this issue through a good relationship with both Chinas, but this dual relationship cannot last. When the affair heats up between the PRC and ROC, the US needs to pick the stronger ally, the PRC, for the protection of its own national interests. It is never good to lose a major economic power (the PRC) as your ally, and it is even worse to get involved with a possibility of a nuclear war, as the PRC has hinted. When push comes to shove, the US must pick the stronger ally, and lose just a minor trading partner.
