Those who follow current events closely have seen certain emerging trends which point to a possible resurgence underway for conservatives. That, if true, will help Republicans in November 2008. I'll explain, but first some bad news for Republicans.
Senator Trent Lott's (R-MS) announcement that he will resign “to pursue other opportunities,” brings to six the number of Republican senators who will not return in January 2009. The others are Wayne Allard (R-CO), Pete Domenici (R-NM), Chuck Hegal (R-NE), John Warner R-VA), and Larry Craig(R-ID). All are in competitive states and their departure gives Democrats a decided advantage in next year's elections, when Republicans will be compelled to defend 23 seats, while Democrats only need to defend 12. Bad news? Yes and no.
Fundraising is also a huge concern for the Republican Party. At a time when many major corporations report large gains - Apple's recent quarterly profits jumped 67%; Merck, which just offered to settle all Vioxx claims for $4.85 billion, developed a vaccine for cervical cancer and a new medicine for diabetes, tallied a 62% gain; McDonald's, Coca-Cola, Boeing, Caterpillar, Honeywell, and 3M all reported strong earnings - contributions to the Republican Party are way down. With just under a year to go in the presidential campaign, Republicans are losing the fundraising wars big time.
Senator John Ensign (R-NV), head of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, wrote in his November 12, 2007 fundraising letter: “Republican Senate candidates are fighting for their lives against the most well-funded, aggressive Democrat attack campaign in history.” He expects the AFL-CIO to spend $200 million during the 2008 elections, almost exclusively to benefit Democrats.
Yes, the difference between money the Democrat presidential candidates have raised and funds the Republican candidates have collected, is striking. Rudy Giuliani leads all Republicans with $17 million, while Democrat Barrack Obama has raised twice that much. If this state of affairs continues, the Republican presidential primary winner will face significant campaign problems, as will Republican candidates nationwide. But will it? I think not, because 10 recent events point to a conservative resurgence across America.
First, retirement of “moderate” (read liberal) Republicans Hegal and Warner is surely a blessing in disguise. They've seldom, if ever, helped further conservative policies in the Senate, and replacements will benefit the conservative cause.
Second, Lott, 66, presently the House Minority Whip, relished the wrangling over votes that went with his job, but his voting record reveals a vacillation between liberal and conservative positions. Fortunately, Mississippi's conservative Republican governor Haley Barbour gets to appoint Lott's temporary successor, who will then have a leg up in the 2008 election to fill out Lott's unexpired term, which runs through 2012.
Third, in Virginia, Republicans are urging former U.S. Solicitor General Ted Olson to run for the seat John Warner will vacate. Olson's wife Barbara - promising author of the New York Times bestseller, Hell to Pay, an exposé of Hillary Rodham Clinton - was killed on 9/11/. She was a passenger on United Airlines Flight 93, which crashed into a field near Shanksville, a rural Somerset County, Pennsylvania town. Olson would oppose former Democrat governor Mark Warner. “His [Olson's] political background and high profile in conservative circles would actually make him a national candidate from a fundraising perspective,” a New York based fundraiser said. “He could actually go toe to toe with Warner on the donor front, if he were interested ...”
Fourth, over on the House side, when Representative Tom Tancredo (R-CO), announced on October 29, 2007 that he won't seek re-election at the end of his current term, he joined several other House Republicans who do not intend to return in January 2009. But just watch this.
Tancredo made his mark by pushing for immigration reform long before the 9/11/ terrorist attack. Dan Stein, president of the Federation for American Immigration Reform said of Mr. Tancredo: “He's been a bellwether of the national mood - kind of a national canary who's been way ahead of, or foreshadowing the surge in public opinion, and actually helped lead it at critical times. He's really irreplaceable ...”
However, Tancredo believes he can now step aside because the immigration issue has gained other champions. He points to massive numbers of voter's telephone calls and e-mails helping to sink the Senate's misguided Immigration Reform bill and the so-called Dream Act, other Republican presidential candidates embracing immigration reform as a top priority, and his recent offering of an amendment on the House floor removing federal funding from sanctuary cities that protect illegal aliens. Democrats accepted the amendment without objection, and Tancredo said: “I just figure how many more signs do I need that I've done what I set out to do... I remember the first time I did it, I got [only] 82 votes. That's what has changed in the Congress.” See the trend here?
