November 2008 is the month that America goes to the polls to elect a new president of the United States. I think in the U.S. and the wider world the present president George Bush has lost most of the support he once had. I saw a film clip recently of the new republican nomination John McCain escorting President Bush to his plane, indicating by association he is not helping his campaign to become the next president. I believe in the U.S. the majority of citizens are very disillusioned with the Bush administration, mainly I believe due to the recession the U.S. economy is in, due to the credit crunch, and bad foreign policy. A lot of Americans blame president Bush for not anticipating problems with the economy, and certainly blame him for not taking strong action when the problems came to the fore. A lot of U.S. Citizens have lost their homes in this economic crisis, and regardless of whether it was the Bush's Government's fault, they will get blame in the long run.
Also America has been seen to have a very aggressive foreign policy as far as Iraq and Afghanistan is concerned. In my opinion I believe the terrorist attack on the twin towers in New York would have happened had there been a Democratic administration rather than a Republican one, but the response to the attack would have been different. I don't believe had the democratic nomination won the election in 2000 that there would have been invasions of Iraq or Afghanistan. There may well have been bombing raids like under the Clinton administration, but no actual invasion.
Bush made a major mistake in his assumption that he could justify going to war in Iraq by saying the country had weapons of mass destruction, but surely even he must have know that the truth would out, and that they would never find the said nuclear or biological weapons. I think most people who have taken an interest must surely believe that President Bush knew that Iraq had no weapons of mass destruction, but he needed a very good reason to go to war. Hence all there reports about how American intelligence honestly thought there might be weapon of mass destruction.
Did the intelligent services really believe there might be weapon of mass destruction, or were they simple following orders to justify going to war. I know which I believe. But having said that I actually think the U.S. and Britain were right to go to war in Iraq, as Saddam Hussein was an evil dictator, who needed to be stopped. The unfortunate thing is that Iraq is now in such a bloody mess, that most people think it was a mistake to invade, which ironically it wasn't, it was just justified under false pretences.
Now America is coming up to the presidential election in November, and I think most people in the U.S. want a change in administration. It has already been settled that John McCain will have the Republican nomination. It is not out of the realms of possibility that he could become the next president, but due to the fact that the U.S. has had Republican Government for the last eight years, it will probably count against him. Also I believe he is seventy-one years old, and as such this will count against him in some people eyes, slightly ageist, but fact. One of the main things, which is helping his campaign, is the fact that the democrats have not yet chosen a candidate to fight him in the presidential election. The longer the contest for the democratic nomination goes on, and it probably will, the more divided the democrat's look to the electorate.
Hilary Clinton and Barack Obama both have individual talent, which could make them good presidents. Unfortunately they are both very strong candidates and as such are splitting the democratic vote. At this present moment in time Barack Obama is leading in the vote, but it might all be decided by the super delegates vote in August. As much as I admire Hilary Clinton, I believe Barack Obama will eventually get the nomination to run as the democratic nomination in the 2008 presidential election. Hilary has run a fantastic campaign, but due to her marriage to an ex-president, she is viewed by some of the electorate as coming from the political old guard, and the America electorate want a new broom in the political landscape. Personally I think Hilary Clinton would make a good president, but I have a funny feeling she won't get the nomination.
As such, I am predicting a straight fight between Barack Obama and John McCain for the presidential election. It will be a hell of a tussle, between the new and old, right and the left, and there can only be one winner. Race will play a part in the contest, with Barack Obama being strong with the black, Asian and Hispanic electorate, and John McCain being strong with the white middle classes. Hopefully the colour of Barack Obama will not play too much a part in the election, but I get a funny feeling it will. As for my prediction who will win the presidential election, I will stick my neck out and say, I think Barack Obama will narrowly win the election to become the first black president of the United States of America.
He will have a lot to do to revive the American economy, which currently is in recession, and to restore strong ties with other countries around the world, which were lost under the Bush administration. I believe he will make a good president, and to be honest could not be as bad as the last president. Only time will tell if my predictions are right, but I believe there will be a charge in Government, and the democrats under Barack Obama or Hilary Clinton, will Govern the United States of America.
