My gut feeling tells me that from the events of the last month or so, it is not so likely that Obama will pick Hillary as his vice-presidential running mate.
In some of my previous articles, I asked if Hillary was defeated by Obama for the Democratic nomination for President after the contests in May. I correctly surmised that Obama had beaten Hillary just before it became mathematically true in late May. Hillary made a gracious, though tardy exit from the campaign Saturday with her speech in Washington DC. She asked the question, “What do I want?” on Tuesday night, but she never answered it. (She still did not answer it Saturday and she probably still does not know for sure.) I would have loved to have been a fly on the wall at Sen. Diane Feinstein's house Thursday night where Hillary and Obama had their first post-race discussion. I wonder if Hillary answered that question, “What do I want?” to Obama and if Obama answered that question “Yes” or not on Thursday night. Of course, the first logical question of what she might want is, “Does she want to be Obama's running mate, candidate for Vice-President and does Obama want her or need to be?” Let's discuss.
I can tell the first thing that Hillary wants that she thinks she is not getting. R-E-S-P-E-C-T. Make no mistake about it. She was the closest second place finisher for a party's nomination in my lifetime except maybe for Ronald Reagan against Gerald Ford on the Republican side in 1976. I sense that she is feeling “dissed” by the media and many members of the Democratic Party to step aside for Obama. She wanted the four days to grieve for herself and her close loss. Hillary used the speech on Saturday to surround herself with her people, her supporters, those in the audience and vicariously the almost 18 million people that voted for her over the last five months. Hillary wanted just a little more time to feel the love for her from her supporters before she had to turn the love (and the nomination and the Democratic Party) over to Obama.
Does Hillary want to be Obama's running mate? I am confident that she would like to be asked whether she wants the job or not. “If I cannot be number one, I want to be number two”, Hillary may be thinking. “I want to make Obama respect me and make him have to pick me (or at least ask) since I won 50% of the vote and 49% of the delegates” may be another thought of Hillary's. I could be wrong, but this is how I see it from afar. Since Hillary had to “pass on the love” of the 18 million people that she voted for to Obama, she wants the “love” of Obama, i.e. to be offered the VP job. She probably has not decided yet whether she actually wants the job or not. But it seems to be that she wants the control of being the running mate, i.e. to be asked, since she and Bill lost the control of the Democratic Party. Of course, I am just speculating here.
Does Obama want Hillary to be his running mate? This is a different question than “Does he need her to be his running mate?” I doubt seriously that Obama wants Hillary to be his running mate. Again, we go back to the control issue. Obama wants the control to decide his running mate just like every other Presidential nominee since the 12th Amendment changed the rule to have a Presidential candidate run with a mate. Obama has clearly taken control of the party by winning the nomination; as soon as he won the nomination, he took over the operations of the Democratic National Committee. Why would he not want to pick his own running mate as opposed to having to pick the second place finisher? What we have here is simple human nature. Hillary wants validation with her close loss and they both want control in the aftermath of the nominating race, as much as they can get.
Don't forget that if Obama picks Hillary, he gets two for one, Bill, whether he likes it or not. Bill will be hanging his heavy shadow over both of them. Obama will have to suffer through the revisiting of all of the Clinton scandals. Any vetting of Hillary for Vice-President will also include the vetting of Bill Clinton and all his donors to his library and all the other issues of the Clinton scandals. Bill is a ticking time bomb and can go off at any time with his mouth causing damage to Obama and Hillary. I just do not see this happening. Obama could easily be upstaged by Bill and Hillary, not what a President wants from his Vice-President. Don't forget that Hillary (and Bill) probably will still want to run again for President in 2012 or 2016 causing Obama to look over his shoulder. Being stuck with Bill would be reason enough to not nominate Hillary.
Now, we answer the question, “Does Obama need Hillary on the ticket?” We do not have the answer to this question yet. The dynamics of the race will flow back and forth from now until late August, the time Obama needs to make his pick. John McCain, the Republican nominee is saying nice things about Hillary. Translated, he wants the “love” of Hillary's supporters, their votes. If McCain can siphon just a small amount of the Hillary vote in the right states, he can beat Obama in November. Would Hillary be a net plus or minus on the ticket? It is hard to say. Having Hillary (and Bill) on the ticket would galvanize the Republican base in a way that John McCain cannot; the Republican base will always despise the Clintons. Can Obama get enough of the Hillary vote, the non-college educated, the elderly, and the white women to win? This is too early too tell.
I just do not see Obama picking Hillary. He has the control as he won the nomination and has control over the party. It is a gut feeling; we will find out soon enough.
