As President George Bush prepares to leave the White House with his wooden toy box of foreign policies, Islamic militants in the Northern regions of Pakistan are preparing to spend a cold winter dug into their network of bunkers and tunnels. With the Americans in Afghanistan at their tails and the Pakistani national army waiting in the valleys below, there is little comfort to be had. There is another worry for the militants. The Americans have chosen a new leader. He is strong, bold, courageous, and has his sights on their hide out. Back in America, Barack Obama promises economic reform and a fundamental shift in the political culture of Washington but the most tempting and juicy bone that sent the left wing drooling at the mouth, was his plan to remove US troops from Iraq.
These troops will be sent to Afghanistan. Barack Obama will shift his emphasis from Iraq to the mountains of Afghanistan and Northern Pakistan. We can already see troubles brewing as the American government places more pressure on Pakistan to target Islamic militants in its border regions with Afghanistan. America has opened a can of worms. What could be the consequences of creating more instability in Pakistan which is already a part of the nuclear club? This may well prove to be an expensive gamble for the new Obama administration.
The story has already unfolded along the border regions between Pakistan and Afghanistan. The province of Bajaur, an area of hills and valleys along the border to the north, has seen intense fighting between Islamic militants and the Pakistani army. More than 200,000 civilians have fled and are now scattered in camps or living with relatives across the province. The Pakistani army has pushed the militants back to positions that will be cut off when the winter snows arrive. The weather and a force of American and Afghan national army across the frontier will mean that these militants are boxed in.
This is only part of the story. Bajaur is merely one tribal region along the frontier between Pakistan and Afghanistan. The Khyber Pass to the south of Bajaur is a mountain pass that links Pakistan and Afghanistan. It has played an important historic role as a trade route and strategic military location. The sound of British infantry and cavalry echoing along the steep ravines and valleys has now been replaced by the sounds of trundling NATO convoys delivering supplies to Western forces in Afghanistan. Only recently, such a convoy was hijacked by militants encamped in the tribal regions.
However, the notion that every bearded man living in the tribal regions between Pakistan and Afghanistan wields an AK47 in his right hand and an old beaten copy of the Koran in his left with a loathing for the West and all it represents, may well be a myth. This can be seen through the activity of local tribesman who have formed Lashkars. These are traditional armed tribal militias that deal with specific problems, to force the militants out of their areas. After all, the presence of Islamic militants in these regions invite the National Army of Pakistan and the cavalry in the form of US air strikes. The locals merely want to live a peaceful life, and the presence of Islamic militants may well be the cause for their disturbance.
Still, this is no walk in park. The American government since 2001 has sent almost $7 billion to the Pakistani military. The militants mean business and are armed to the teeth with a potent ideological belief. Dug into a complex network of tunnels and bunkers, the Pakistani military faces a tough and enduring enemy. This war will certainly not be over by Christmas.
