Regular new readers will be aware that Prime Minister Ehud Olmert of Israel has announced his intention to step down as prime minister soon after the September 17, 2008 Kadima Leadership conference. Hopefully, this will allow his party (Kadima) to choose a new leader and prepare for the elections. At this critical time it is unclear as to who will succeed him as leader. As is usual, in a democracy, the governing party must choose a leader and it usually chooses the leader from it's ranks. Usually there are front runners for such positions and the Kadima is no exception. Tzipi Livni is probably the most known name to succeed aging Ehud Olmert.
Once elected Livni will need to be able to obtain the support of other parties which form part of the present Government. At this moment it is not certain if the new leader of Kadima (hopefully Livni) will be able to obtain the support of Kadima's allies. Without their support Kadima cannot stay in power. Labour, under the leadership of Defence Minister Ehud Barak is likely to support Ms. Tzipi Livni who has become one of the most powerful women in Israel since Prime Minister Golda Meir in the 1970s.
Tzipi Livni is currently the most powerful women in Israel since Golda Meir.
Livni has many obstacles to overcome in an effort to become prime minister. As a former intelligence officer and the leader of the Israel's team negotiating with Palestinians Livni is used to dealing with obstacles and delicate negotiations. Israeli polls show that Livni will win with a comfortable margin. Her closest rival is Shaul Mofaz who is a member of Kadima and the current minister of transport.
The precise reasons for Prime Minister Olmert's plans to resign are not clear. However the timing of the announcement would suggest that the repeated police questioning may have played a part. The allegations are that Prime Minister Olmert took bribes from an American businessman, made multiple (?duplicate) claims for travel expenses during his term as trade minister and as mayor of Jerusalem Additionally, Prime minister Olmert has been unpopular since his “defeat” in the one month war with Islamic radicals based in Lebanon. Finally, the inability of Israel to contain the Iranian situation i.e. their acquisition of nuclear technology for peaceful purposes is probably another factor leading him to consider this option. Ehud Olmert is currently seen as a weak Prime Minister and therefore his ability to make bold decisions is impaired. Resigning is a reasonable option because it will facilitate the emergence of a new leader with a new mandate who will have the support of the people and hence the legal authority to make and execute bold new decisions.
Prime Ministers do not usually step down for “no obvious reasons”. Other issues which must have propelled Olmert's decision to step down include the failure of the peace process with the Syrians. The end of the Blair Era and the near end of the Bush Era must feature prominently as key reasons for stepping down. The emergence of a new President in the U.S. is likely to impact US - Israeli relations. A new prime minister and a new US president will be better able to build a working relationship and deal with issues more effectively. I also feel that local political considerations have featured prominently in the Prime Minister's plan to step down even though Israeli elections are not due until 2010. I am sure that Olmert has taken local condition into consideration. There is a real possibility this governing Party (Kadima) formed by Former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon prior to going for elective surgery may not may survive the succession battle.
Many observers, both in Israel and Washington, are sceptical of Livni's ability to lead Kadima and to be able to govern after the leadership challenge. It is likely that the coalition will collapse and early parliamentary elections will be called. If this happens then Mofaz, former chief of defence is likely to have an easier time winning over the ultra-Orthodox Shas party. The support of Shas is essential if Kadima is to form a Government. With the support of Shas Kadima will obtain the 61 seats needed.
A call for elections will put the brakes on all negotiations even though elections are not due until 2010. Benjamin Netanyahu, a former prime Minister and critique of the peace process may aim to form a new government . He may be able to do this with the support of minor parties. I am predicting that in a tight contest between Netanyahu and Livni the latter is likely to prevail. Her management style, personality, ability to negotiate, and good looks will win the day. The left leaning Labour Party is likely to support Livni too.
