Currently, the death toll is approximately one hundred thousand, and with nearly one million homeless Burmese, disease and starvation will likely lead to many more deaths. The United Nations and United States have made serious efforts to send food to Myanmar. However, the Junta has disabled the obtainment of much needed supplies by the Burmese by seizing these shipments. Many diplomats believe that the United States should intervene militarily to provide humanitarian aid to the Burmese people since it is the wealthiest nation in the world and has a moral obligation to assist victims of the crisis. However, an invasion by the United States violates sound foreign policy and can also exacerbate the crisis, leading to the loss of even more human lives.

A unilateral humanitarian intervention would be extremely costly. After the 2004 tsunami, 24 U.S. ships and 16,000 troops were positioned throughout the Pacific and Indonesian regions, costing the U.S. around five million dollars per day. In total, the U.S. spent 900 million dollars to rebuild after the tsunami, whereas the U.S. government has only allocated 3.5 million dollars to the Myanmar crisis. The Burmese junta has been extremely adverse to the idea of Western aid. Even if the U.S. proposed to station troops in Myanmar with the sole purpose of distributing humanitarian relief, the junta would reject such a course of action due to its dislike for Western values and culture.

Even if the Burmese death toll increases tenfold to approximately 1 million people, an invasion could cause an equal number of deaths, if not more. Currently, Myanmar is divided between ethnic groups that have deep animosity towards one another creating a situation that is very comparable to Iraq before the American invasion in 2003. The present military dictatorship in Myanmar can be held accountable for holding the country together with the threat of using force.

An effort to overthrow the junta will not instantly create a utopian land. Myanmar would become a land ravaged by civil war and would require a long military occupation. This occupation would be very politically unpopular in the United States due to its cost and would necessitate military manpower that is already a scarce American resource.

Rather than a unilateral humanitarian invasion, the best hope for a viable solution to the current crisis in Myanmar is an international effort. Any international solution requires a consensus between the Western powers and MyanmarÕs Asian trading partners, especially China. This will require compromise so that the United States and Western powers can persuade China and its neighbors to hold Myanmar accountable for its actions, which international organizations are labeling as genocide.

The United States may have to give concessions to China on certain regulatory issues in order to gain Chinese support on the Myanmar crisis. The United Nations Security Council cannot pass resolutions imposing sanctions without ChinaÕs agreement since China has a veto. Nevertheless, the United NationÕs Secretary-General and General Assembly can continue to express public outrage over the military juntaÕs refusal to allow complete Western assistance to the victims of Cyclone Nargis.

China requires world support to have a successful Olympics in 2008. Citizens in the U.S. and other Western countries can continue to send food and other supplies and express their outrage through a program of unified protest. Hopefully, a large public outcry and pressure from China can help solve the crisis in Myanmar without requiring an American invasion.

AmeriCares

AmeriCares motto, or model as they call it, is “timely response, meaningful impact.” This organization has prided itself in being one of the first organizations to be on the ground in Myanmar when disaster struck. They have distributed medical aid and supplies to the survivors of the Cyclone.

In China, AmeriCares has been working with health organizations to deliver medical supplies and medicine that is needed to help the earthquake victims and recovery efforts.

AmeriCares has also been very active in the crisis in Darfur, having airlifted supplies 10 times at this point in time to those in need.

Action Against Hunger

Action Against Hunger’s mission is “to save lives by eliminating hunger through the prevention, detection, and treatment of malnutrition, especially during and after emergency situations of conflict, war and natural disaster. ” Days after the cyclone hit in Myanmar, Action Against Hunger sent in a convoy full of supplies to help the survivors of the disaster located in Bogalay, an area that was desperately in need. They have been working in Myanmar since 1994 and continue to work closely with relief efforts in this country.

UNICEF

UNICEF, one of the more well known charities, has committed itself to the motto “unite for children.” UNICEF expediently distributed supplies to children and their families directly after the cyclone hit in Myanmar, and are working with the government and partners to distribute these supplies more efficiently to those who are in need.

According to its website, UNICEF is also working closely with the Government of China to provide immediate therapy to children who have been affected by the earthquake, as they recognize the importance of getting the children of victims help so that they will avoid long-term psychological problems.

Surely you will see the value in all of these charities and their efforts in Myanmar and China. You can find out more information about these and other charities at Network for Good.

Of course, you should do your own research before deciding to send your dollars to these charities, but this is a great starting point.

China has long been the principal ally of the Burmese generals, shielding them from censure at the UN Permanent Security Council by judicious use of the veto and sending thousands of Chinese workers to build the infrastructure that might just help transform the Burmese economy from its disastrously ramshackle state of affairs. China has also contributed a hydroelectric power station which has made possible the extraordinary relocation of the capital to Naypidaw from Rangoon (Yangon). When it was first announced that the capital had suddenly been moved, there was widespread amazement across the region. Very few people have been permitted to visit the site of the new capital, which initially appeared to be just a few buildings in what had once been them idle of the jungle. Naypidaw now has accommodation blocks for civil servants and more impressive apartment buildings for senior officials. Ministry buildings have been completed on a standard basis, with Burmese motifs enhancing the architecture. There are precious few facilities for the civil servants who have been forced to uproot themselves and move halfway across the country. There are certainly very few opportunities for the notoriously poorly-paid junior civil servants to find ways to supplement their meagre incomes. No embassies have yet to move to the new capital and no businesses have been willing or, indeed permitted, to establish representative offices there. In terms of efficiency of governance, the move is as debilitating as it is mystifying. There is still speculation that paranoid Than Shwe feared invasion by sea from US forces, although that seems a remote possibility. Others have noted that Naypidaw is close to the location of one of the historical imperial capital sites and speculated that Rangoon is too much under the influence of the British colonialists. Others again talk about moving to a location closer to the centre of the country to be closer to all regions. In any case, the enormous expenditure of resources seems to be a wholly wasteful disaster.

The movement of the capital also means that the generals are far removed from the centres of protest in Rangoon, Mandalay and other important towns and cities in the country. Whether Than Shwe is still capable of being swayed by the sight of military goons attacking unarmed monks with batons and guns remains to be seen, although surely there are some among the junta who would be. However, they are not there. Even the UN Emissary, Ibrahim Gambari, is finding it difficult to gain access to the generals, although he has apparently been able to speak to democratically-elected prime minister Aung San Suu Kyi, who has been held under house arrest for years and who has never been permitted to take up her legal right to rule the country. Indeed, Than Shwe took over the country after a series of struggles among the military in 1993, when a more hard-line attitude towards the democratic process became evident. Now the military is trying to lock down the country, apparently having turned off internet and mobile phone connections and, according to its editor, launched a denial-of-service attack against the pro-democracy magazine The Irrawaddy (Irrawaddy). However, modern information technology has become so prevalent and the technical abilities of the Burmese military so ham-fisted compared to the nimble young people able to outwit them that it is almost impossible to prevent news leaking out these days. The atrocities that are being committed will become known and, at least so it is to be hoped, perpetrators will one day be punished.

Rumours are swirling around the expatriates in Thailand and the media that hundreds of monks were dragged out of their monasteries are placed in detention. People fear the real death toll is enormously higher than the nine or ten variously reported as having been acknowledged by the junta. International condemnation of the acts of violence has been patchy: US President George W Bush has been commendably vocal but his credibility is at a very low ebb after his various foreign and domestic policy escapades; European leaders are firm but compromised by the businessmen perfectly happy to come and do business where they can. India has been silent. It is China to which we look for a lead in these trying times.