gh being a third party, the United States has still had a large effect on theSince then there have been three major players in the Taiwanese independence issue: the People's Republic of China (PRC), or mainland China, the Republic of China (ROC), or Taiwan, and the United States. Althou relationship between the two Chinese “states”. The understanding of the positions and past actions of all three states are essential to the understanding of the issue.

Taiwanese Position

The main Taiwanese view about the independence of Taiwan is that Taiwan is already a sovereign state with the official name of the Republic of China and holds the island of Taiwan and other smaller islands under its administration (1). There are many reasons this claim is tainted, but there are just as many that give validity to this claim.

The greatest reason the Taiwanese position of ROC sovereignty is tainted is the fact that only 26 states, each of whom have only a small amount of world influence, recognize Taiwan as a sovereign state. The United States, being the world superpower, recognizes the PRC as the sole government of Mainland China and Taiwan. (2).

The Taiwanese claim that they have met most of the “eight accepted criteria” that makes a state qualified to be a state. They have a stable population of 23 million people and have the economic activity of an organized country. In fact Taiwan has become one of the economic powerhouses of Asia, and has a GDP per capita in the top 30 of the world. It has an extensive transportation system that is on par with any other industrialized state. Taiwan even has a military with over 400,000 service members. Finally, Taiwan has a sovereign government that has been governing the island since 1949, even though the PRC has laid claim to the land since then (3).

Recently, Taiwan has been acting more independent from China then ever before. In 2000, Taiwan held its first election in the face of Chinese military intervention and elected the pro-independence party to the presidency. This is a daring move, especially when Chinese polls show that 95% of the Chinese population support war against Taiwan if they declare independence (4). Following this success, Taiwan has continued to hold democratic elections independent from China, by holding a successful election in 2004.

These great successes of independence have allowed Taiwan to begin to have a more friendly relationship with Mainland China. They have decided that they have nothing to gain from further advocating independence if they are already independent, so they have abolished the 50 year ban on direct contact with the mainland. This included mail links, trade, and transportation. Furthermore, the leaders of Taiwan have become friendlier with the leaders of the Mainland by inviting China's top envoy to attend the inauguration ceremony (6).

In conclusion Taiwan's standpoint on the issue is that Taiwan is a sovereign state and has been one for over 50 years. They have met all the requirements as a sovereign state and have taken actions to prove that they are what they claim they are. Being a sovereign state, the Taiwanese have begun to try and be friendly with the mainland to avoid further confrontations.

Chinese Position

“Taiwan independence, in whatever form, will never be allowed.” This was the Chinese government's reaction to the Taiwanese election in 2000, and basically sums up the Chinese standpoint about dealing with the Taiwan issue (7). The Chinese claim that they are the sole government of all Chinese lands, including Taiwan. They are backed by most nations of the world and also the United Nations. Moreover, the PRC's military presence around Taiwan raises questions about the ROC's sovereignty and ability to secure its borders.

All but 26 nations in the world who hold diplomatic relations with either China, say they the PRC is the sole government of all Chinese lands (2). This gives the PRC unquestionable support from the world. Even the world superpower, the United States, officially agrees that the PRC holds authority. Being recognized by foreign states as a legitimate government is key to making you a legitimate government, so in that sense the PRC is the legitimate government of Taiwan.

Aside from other states, the United Nations is a key organization which determines your status as a state. According to United Nations General Assembly Resolution 2758, the PRC is the sole legitimate government of China, and holds the Chinese United Nations seat. It is one of the five permanent members of the UN Security council, so it holds a considerable amount of power in the international community (8). According to the PRC, why should a rogue government, who is barely recognized by foreign states, be the government of China when they are the recognized government of an emerging superpower?

Like the Taiwanese, the Mainlanders have also taken steps to promote their position. Their actions have generally been to create a military presence around Taiwan, and threaten them with their military might. In 2000 they conducted military exercises in the Taiwan Strait. During this time they claimed that they were prepared to use force if the Taiwan “province” declared its independence. Also, the Chinese military has aimed 784 missiles at Taiwan that could fully disable its communication and transportation in 10 hours (10).

Even the United States cannot shake the Chinese determination to hold Taiwan. A major Chinese general, General Zhu, says that China is prepared to use nuclear weapons against the United States if it militarily intervenes in the Taiwanese conflict (11). They say that they will hold Taiwan at whatever cost and it will never be allowed to split form China. Taiwan is nothing more than a rogue province whose leash has been let too loose.

US Position

As a third party, the United States' opinion in this matter is less important as China and Taiwan's, but if it weren't for the United States, China could have easily brought Taiwan under its control and ended the issue by now. Officially, the United States sides with the PRC by not holding relations with Taiwan and supporting the “One China Policy”, but the United States has unofficially acted in ways that show that they still partly support the ROC. This dual relationship has caused the PRC to question its position toward the US.

Up to 1979, the United States had been allied with the ROC because of the simple fact that they were a democratic society, and the PRC was a communist government. In 1979, President Nixon normalized the relationship with the Communist government, and switched diplomatic relations from the ROC to the PRC (12). It also adopted the “One China Policy” which means that the US equates China with the "Peoples Republic of China". (13).

Although the United States officially holds relations with the ROC, it still has unofficial economic ties with the US because of their extensive history of friendship (12). These economic ties include the sale of various arms to Taiwan, which directly undermines the PRC's authority. In 1998, the US sold $300 million worth of navy frigates armed with state of the art weaponry to help in modernizing the Taiwanese navy (14). Furthermore, even though the official foreign relations of the US is only with the PRC, US law still states that Taiwan is officially a sovereign state and should be treated as such (13). In this way, the US has assured that it can remain friendly with the PRC, while still enjoying the economic gains of Taiwan.

Although the US has switched relations to the PRC, the PRC is still at shaky ground with the US. The PRC continues to make sure that the United States does not intervene in the situation. The United States has stood by through these threats so as to not uproot the balance of the situation.

These three positions have created a delicate situation in which any shift in the balance can change the situation completely. One misstep from Taiwan or the United States could cause the highly determined PRC to react in a violent way. There are many possibilities in which this confrontation could end, but the highest possibility is that the Chinese will finally have had enough and take full control of Taiwan. The Chinese are completely determined to keep Taiwan under their rule, as they showed in their statements about nuclear retaliation. Moreover, their actions, like setting up missiles around Taiwan and conducting military exercises, further these statements.

Recommendations for Taiwan (ROC)

The main point the Taiwanese need realize is that they are toying with the new superpower, and these are dangerous actions. They don't seem to understand that the PRC is completely determined about this issue, and that they also have 99% of all international support. Although the Taiwanese have the right to remain a sovereign state, in the end, they cannot beat the PRC at a game of cat and mouse. They need to figure out how they can resolve this issue with the most they can get out of it. It is an undeniable fact the PRC will one day re-conquer Taiwan, so they need to make the most of the “one country, two systems” idea, in order to prosper under a capitalist economy. Hong Kong has reunited with China in 1997, and their economic growth has continued to soar as before. Taiwan needs to follow in Hong Kong's footsteps to continue their economic prosperity.

Recommendations for China

With military superiority and international support, China has the obvious upper hand in this conflict. China just needs to find a way to pressure Taiwan into submission without the loss of human lives, which is all they can lose. The worst-case scenario for China is if this issue escalates into a larger military conflict in which they must forcefully retake Taiwan. Furthermore, the Chinese need to be cautious about US intervention, which could create a confrontation much larger than Taiwan is worth. If China can find a way to peacefully resolve this issue, then it will also be better in the future, with regards to the relationship with the Taiwan province. If a violent conflict occurs, the Taiwanese will be more likely to act with hostility toward China and attempt to regain their independence. Moreover, a military conflict would not fit nicely with China's image toward the rest of the world. If China does not strive for a non-violent resolution, the results could be, to say the least, unpleasant.

Recommendations for the US

The United States needs to realize that it is not the most important actor in this conflict and needs to keep its nose out of these affairs. They have found a way to temporarily deal with this issue through a good relationship with both Chinas, but this dual relationship cannot last. When the affair heats up between the PRC and ROC, the US needs to pick the stronger ally, the PRC, for the protection of its own national interests. It is never good to lose a major economic power (the PRC) as your ally, and it is even worse to get involved with a possibility of a nuclear war, as the PRC has hinted. When push comes to shove, the US must pick the stronger ally, and lose just a minor trading partner.

Beijing may allow Japanese military C130 military transport planes to deliver much needed aid to the millions of displaced victims of the Sichuan earthquake. This would be a major diplomatic breakthrough in Sino-Japanese relations as it would be the first time since World War II that Japanese military aircraft & personnel would be allowed into China.

Analysis/Implications/Remarks/Comments: While Sino-Taiwanese ties are on the right track, Sino-Japanese ties are dicey at best, but although China is nothing like Myanmar, the hesitation in allowing potential aid to millions of people who are suffering from hunger & lack of shelter again doesn't do anything for China's international image.

Chief Executive Donald Tsang has suffered a major setback when two proposed exemptions from the food labeling law were blocked by democrats. The exemptions would have included health foods sold in small quantities. Retailers warn that 15000 food items would have to be taken off store shelves because of their low sales volumes that would not be worth the cost of repackaging.

Analysis/Implications/Remarks/Comments: This should be a wake-up call for Donald Tsang that he can't ignore. If he wants to finish with a high popularity rating in 2012 or 2017, he must show compassion for the Hong Kong people which is one of his biggest weaknesses and this issue is very important because people need to know what they are buying as their health or maybe even lives are at stake

Dab VICE-CHAIRMAN Greg So will give up his Canadian passport, the first official to do so amid the passport dispute among government officials. According to a government source, “An undersecretary giving up his foreign nationality doesn't mean (that) the others have to follow suit. If Mr. So is to give up his (Canadian) passport, it would be his own decision”.

Analysis/Implications/Remarks/Comments: Once again, people's loyalty is being questioned. In the past, democrats have been denied home return permits if they wanted to go to the mainland. Now, Greg So of the DAB is giving up his foreign passport. Hmm. And government officials are saying that he did it with no external pressure?

NBA games are “too entertaining” for a quake-reeling China, according to Jiang Heping, director of CCTV5, which showed game 1 of the western conference finals between the Lakers & the Spurs, but no games after that.

Analysis/Implications/Remarks/Comments: This may sound like a broken record, but this report is biased as usual. Chinese officials are only saying this because their national basketball icon, Yao Ming & the Houston Rockets have now been eliminated from the playoffs. If Yao & the Houston Rockets were in the western conference finals, then, surely, we wouldn't be reading this story

But this was nothing compared to how I felt a few days later when I heard that both China and Russia were against sanctioning North Korea for their blatant disregard for the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty [NPT]. I sat in front of my computer mouth agape as I suddenly realized that it didn’t matter what the US said or did on the UN Security Council or what we wanted to see happen on the world stage, so long as China had a UNSC veto, they could derail any plan to contain North Korean, Iran, or any other expansionist/hostile nation. Never mind the neutron bomb, Chinas veto was the single most destructive weapon on the planet.

Oh how cried and moaned and kvetched about how in one seemingly innocuous headline, the United States was made to look toothless on all but the least important of geopolitical issues. I lamented that the NOKO Bomb (as all the hipsters are calling it) had made China the real superpower in the world and they seemed to be hell bent on making sure that the United States was roundly supplanted as the leader in world affairs and impotent to do much of anything in the way of stopping nuclear proliferation.

I suddenly became the child who suddenly realizes that there is no Santa Clause.

However, after all the crying, moaning and most importantly, the kvetching, I found a series of headlines that has turned a rather bleak situation into one where there is a glimmer of hope.

According to an article in The Australian, Beijing is openly considering "regime change" in Pyongyang after last week's nuclear test by their confrontational client state.

"In today's DPRK Government, there are two factions, sinophile and royalist," one Chinese analyst wrote online. "The objective of the sinophiles is reform, Chinese-style, and then to bring down Kim Jong-il's royal family. That's why Kim is against reform. He's not stupid."

More than one Chinese academic agreed that China yearned for an uprising similar to the one that swept away the Romanian dictator Nicolae Ceausescu in 1989 and replaced him with communist reformers and generals. The Chinese made an intense political study of the Romanian revolution and even questioned president Ion Iliescu, who took over, about how it was done and what roles were played by the KGB and by Russia.

Mr. Kim, for his part, ordered North Korean leaders to watch videos of the swift and chaotic trial and execution of Ceausescu and his wife, Elena, the vice-prime minister, as a salutary exercise.

The balance of risk between reform and chaos dominated arguments within China's ruling elite. The Chinese have also permitted an astonishing range of vituperative Internet comment about an ally with which Beijing maintains a treaty of friendship and co-operation. Academic Wu Jianguo published an article in a Singapore newspaper - available online in China - bluntly saying: "I suggest China should make an end of Kim's Government."

"The Chinese have given up on Kim Jong-il," commented one diplomat. "The question is, what are they going to do about it?"

What will they do about it indeed. The NOKO Bomb may have inadvertently led to the demise of Jong Il dynasty in North Korea, by of all hands China. I have said in the past and it has been affirmed by many analysts that N. Korea does the dirty work for China. They are something like Chinas personal mafia, what with all the counterfeiting of US dollars, drug running by N. Korean diplomats and large scale spy training going on. I would not have thought in a million years that Hu Jintao would throw his buddy the “Dear Leader” over the falls to safe face with the world community. But if the reporting in The Australian is indeed sound, that may in fact become a welcomed reality.

It all depends on what exactly China wants for themselves or sees as their needs. They want to dominate South East Asia and the Pacific in a sort of Big Brother way like the US used to do in Latin America. They are accomplishing this obviously through military build-up but more importantly through becoming a major economic impact player.

For example, the latest doings in Chinas markets report that, “Wal-Mart Stores Inc., stymied this month in its attempt to expand in Japan, plans to double its stores in China by acquiring Trust-Mart for about $1 billion, a person familiar with the proposal said.

Trust-Mart, a closely held chain of grocery and appliance stores, is in talks with Wal-Mart and other overseas companies, said a spokesman, Huang Shiying. A Wal-Mart deal needs regulatory approval and may not be announced for weeks, the person familiar with the proposed acquisition said yesterday, declining to be identified before an announcement.

Expansion in the world's fourth-largest economy may counteract slowing U.S. sales and bolster revenue at Wal-Mart. The retailer's overseas ambitions were thwarted by its midyear withdrawal from Germany and South Korea, and after Japan's Aeon won exclusive rights to acquire the supermarket company Daiei this month.” (source)

I could name at least a dozen more stories from just yesterday alone that show how the Red Dragon is extending its economic reach further and deeper in the world at an exponential rate. If they do not have designs on violently crippling the US, just nudging it out of its position of power on the global economic stage, then the last thing they want is to go to war with anyone or set up a scenario where we exert our military might in their sphere of influence. Where making money is concerned, sometimes you have to trade in your old destructive friends for the more prominent crowd.

I’m willing to go along with the idea that China might throw Mr. Il over the falls because of yet another story that happened to have brightened my day. Real Clear Politics opinion writer James Lewis writes that because Iran and North Korea have been working hand-in-hand on weapons that endanger China along with everybody else, China may move away from their unabashed love fest with that wild and crazy anti-Semite, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and back workable sanctions against Iran.

The other reason why Beijing may turn on Tehran is because of the old adage that the enemy of my enemy is my friend. Lewis makes the point that China has its own radical Islamists, the restless Ughuirs. “Beijing doesn't want a bloody Chechnyan rebellion, or its own intifada, like the one foolish France is now experiencing. It especially doesn't want an Islamofascist Pakistan on its borders, armed with nukes and ICBMs and run by expansionist martyrs.”

I’ve been following the story of nuclear proliferation in South East Asian and Middle East since early 2005 and generally it’s not pretty. There’s a whole lot of diplomacy, broken promises and subterfuge to cover malicious intent. The most frustrating part covering this mess has been having to watch the European Union hold mad tea parties with disingenuous thugs under the umbrella of “negotiations.” It’s an exercise in masturbation at best and serious threat to world stability at worst.

However, now that I’m learning to love the fallout from the NOKO Bomb, I’ve realized that the world may have taken a sharp turn to the right. Not only does China slowly seem to be seeing the light, but those dusty old codgers from the EU may also have finally grown a set of grapefruits and opted to make an executive decision on Iran.

Reuters reports that, “The European Union, spurred by North Korea's nuclear test, was set to back limited United Nations sanctions against Iran on Tuesday after Tehran spurned conditions for opening negotiations on its nuclear program.

The EU's 25 foreign ministers, meeting in Luxembourg, were to discuss incremental measures targeted first at individuals and materials involved in Iranian uranium enrichment activities, which the West suspects is aimed at making a bomb.

After four months of talks with EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana, Iran this month rejected a U.N. demand that it suspend enrichment.

"For that reason, we will not be able to avoid the Security Council now taking up consultations with the aim of a resolution on the first step in sanctions," German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier told reporters.

Ministers arriving at the meeting made clear that alarm at North Korea's nuclear test and its implications for other countries were a key factor in the way they approached Iran, although their economic interests with Tehran are far greater.

"The most important thing is to have a united response as we showed with North Korea. We must show Iran that the international community is completely determined to remain united," European External Relations Commissioner Benita Ferrero-Waldner said.”

As Rush Limbaugh would say, hubba hubba.

I have learned to stop kvetching and am loving the NOKO Bomb. It may have become the high water mark for steering the rest of the world in the general direction of the United States, which I should remind all of you, said we should have been dealing with these issues back in 2002. I’m just saying is all.