I have published an article on why Senator Obama will be elected president. It can be read here to obtain a balanced perspective.

The entire world knows that Senator McCain is seventy two years old. This is a major factor against him. Senator McCain cannot change his age but he can appear to look younger to the voters. Each time I look at his picture I see his “pursed lips.” To the casual observer this may not mean much but for someone who wants to be the president of the United States he cannot appear to be ill, aged or weak. Yes, age discrimination, sex discrimination and disability discrimination are against the law but few people would disagree that these groups do not have the same clout as healthy individuals.

Picture: Senator Obama. Dignified, “in-control” image from here.

On many of the pictures Senator McCain appears to be holding onto the podium. This is not a sign of someone who is healthy. It is a sign of someone who needs help to stand. If Senator McCain needs help to stand than he becomes less electable. He needs to publicize the fact that he is a young “seventy two”; also that he is physically fit and able to lead. Most people are retired at his age. Many are dead, buried and forgotten. So he needs to make a “special circumstances” case which is strong and convincing.

Picture of Senator McCain. Holding on to the podium. Appearing obese, short of breath and labouring to make a point. Look at the veins in his neck. Picture from here.

Senator McCain has NOT made a good political choice of a running mate. Sarah Palin is young, enthusiastic and motivated. In pictures she appears like “his wife.” She appears to be young, enthusiastic and motivated. However, there is no evidence about how the country will vote when they “unconsciously” see this “husband wife relationship. My feeling is that the country sees a “father daughter” relationship and I am not sure how the country will vote when it perceives this relationship. Irrespective of how the country perceives the relationship; it was initially helpful to the senator but the novelty seems to be wearing off. My advice to senator McCain would be to allow her more freedom to express her ideas. Of course this is a double edged sword. I say this because if Ms. Palin expresses the wrong thoughts then Senator McCain risks losing the election. However, if she is perceived to be “too controlled” by Senator McCain then he risks losing the election too. So, senator McCain has to walk a tight rope here.

Sarah Palin is not as popular as the Republicans believe her to be. She is a polarizing figure at best. She is not your average “hockey mum” as she Senator McCain has tried to portray her. Sarah Palin's does not “have the right value system” to raise her own children. A teenage daughter who is pregnant speaks volumes. This was never a value system advocated the by right. Further, not appearing in front of a tribunal after saying that she will cooperate, and then say that the tribunal is democrat controlled does not spell well for Sarah Palin, Senator McCain or her husband. Investigative panels are always made up of one party which has a majority. This does not give anyone the right to refuse to testify under oath. Americans can see between the lines. They know that Sarah Palin is hiding something.

What other people, outside the US right supporters have to say about Sarah Palin can be read here. I agree with Heather Mallick's assessment of Sarah Palin. Yes she comes across as one who is power grabbing. The reasons given for her refusal to testify under oath are reasons which only Bush and Palin can use and “get away with them reasons.”

Picture of Female voters who support Obama for president. Image from: here.

Senator McCain has alienated female voters. They make up more than 50% of eligible voters. This will certainly work to his disadvantage. Senator McCain should consider contacting Senator Hillary Clinton. She may agree to be his running mate. That will make him more electable.

At the Republican convention Senator McCain showed his mother who is alive and well supposedly. He should have shown his father. That would have been more appropriate. Senator McCain is a male. His life expectancy is more likely to be in line with his father's life expectancy. I do not know if the Senators father is alive or not. If I were senator McCain I would not have raised the issue of my age. If the democrats raised that as an issue then I could accuse them of “ageism” age discrimination and a whole lot of other things.

Visually, Senator McCain appears obese. He needs to shed some pounds if he wants to give the impression that he is healthy. Obese people have a shorter life span, are more likely to suffer from depression, are slower and die younger. Americans who watched the Republican Conference would have noted that Senator McCain's mother is a slim ninety year old lady. It is for that reason that she is alive and well. So, the senator needs to be slimmer to be more electable.

Senator McCain needs to appear as if he understands the people's problems. He did not support his cause by not knowing the number of houses he has. He did not do justice to his cause by acknowledging that he cannot use the internet and that his staff can use the internet. I would expect the president to know and understand my problems.

Senator McCain has been a good and faithful Republican. His party would love to see him win. However, Senator McCain needs to help himself and the Republican Party to help him get elected. He should not have memory lapses like forgetting the number of houses he has. Further, he should not tell lies and “get caught.” His advertising which accused Senator Obama of calling Ms. Palin a “pig” was a good example of this. He got caught and had to “literally say sorry”. Incidents like this cause votes. In a contest like this, every vote counts.

Picture: Senator McCain. Stressing to make a point? Picture from here.

Senator McCain should avoid offering quick fixes to the economic problems. It is clear that he does not have the necessary economic expertise. His plan to fire Christopher Cox, was an attempt to appease the economic market. This did not go well with his Republican Supporters, the Republican Party or the Bush administration. As a slap in the face to senator McCain President Bush showed up with Christopher Cox as a sign of support for him. Where does all this put Senator McCain? It makes him look old, out of touch and unelectable.

The American public knows that Senator McCain was a friend of Christopher Cox. Christopher Cox is the Head of the Securities and Exchange Commission. When he made the statement, "I would fire him," on Thursday of last week Senator McCain was clearly trying to appease the public. This did not do him any good. "He chose the wrong scapegoat," said James Cox, a professor of corporate and securities law at Duke University who is not related to the SEC chairman.

"It shows a profound ignorance of something (McCain) ought to know about being in Washington, and that is the limited regulatory authority of the SEC." Now Senator McCain has to spend valuable time putting the mass right. This is time which he can ill afford at this late stage of the election.

It was a good thing for the senator to declare his medical records open to the public. Cancer is a bad word. His cancer is fully cured and it did not spread to any lymph node or any other part of the body. It would be nicer if the senator could have had his doctors declare that there were no secondaries or metastatic deposits.

Last but not least, Senator McCain needs the support of the Christian Right to win. He needs to advocate for their vote. This will best be done by him directly appealing for their support. However, this could prove to be counterproductive as he could alienate the independent group of voters.

Ms. McCain's running mate's decision not to testify under oath is seen by the public at large as “hiding something.” It would have been better for her to publicly testify in from of the tribunal and then defend her actions. She now has a national audience who will be willing to listen to her.

Ms. Sarah Palin's husband has also refused to testify in front of the commission. This, to the American Public, indicates that he has something to hide. Again, it would have been better to testify and then defend that position unless, of course, the evidence which is likely to merge is “damning.” Running away will not help them or their course.

The people of the United States, the voters, know that Senator McCain is closely aligned with the Bush Presidencies. It is a well known fact that the Bush presidencies have driven the National Economy into the ground. The collapse of the housing and stock markets are proof of this. The country knows it. The voters know it too. The popularity of the Bush administration is at an all time low. He clearly needs to create a “niche” for himself. To this date he has not been able to do this. To win the elections he needs to be able to this. Maybe he is just too old to be president?

President Bush became president through manipulation of the legal system. He reached that position by manipulating the civil service, the educational system, the Christian right and the military. Al Gore had more votes than Bush. But Bush sued and won a legal judgment. The judgment was delivered by Justice Scalia. Justice Scalia was appointed by President Bush's father. Normally, when a judge knows the plaintiff or defendant, the judge will ask to be excused from the case. In this situation this did not happen. If a judge is appointed by my father, sure, I can expect him to listen to my arguments more favourably. This is the second successful manipulation that I know of.

As a successful president he proceeded to be head of an economic system which he did not understand and did not make any effort to manage. Yes, he managed to make his corporate friends rich. Now all of us, the ordinary tax payers, will pay the price. President Bush's plan calls for saving Major Banks and financial institutions at a cost of $800 billion dollars. Why was the ordinary householder not given similar protection? President Bush has led the most inept government in modern history. He should resign. He made the rich richer and the poor poorer; another successful manipulation.

The fourth successful manipulation happened in the army. President Bush was drafted to join the army. He did this faithfully, as was the practice at that time. In the army his career was barely satisfactory. He attempted and successfully manipulated his situation again. The Young Bush used family influence and money to buy his way out of serving in Vietnam. Other people like Mohammad Ali were sent to jail for refusing to serve in Vietnam. The Vietnam War was very unpopular at that time.

During the Presidential campaign President Bush managed to manipulate the Christian right to vote for him by promising them that he would overturn Rowe vs. Wade. He was a “born again Christian” so they voted for him. He attempted to deliver on his promise but to date he has not been successful. He has another two months as President of the United States. I do not feel that President Bush will be able to deliver on this.

One of his first early tasks, as President, was to help his corporate friends and to obtain revenge against Saddam Hussein. Saddam Hussein was partly responsible, indirectly, for the failure of Senior Bush from being re-elected to a second term to the Office of the President of the United States.

President Bush started the Middle East War by lying to the United Nations, the people of the United States and the rest of the world. If I, or you, did what President Bush did we will be rotting in jail. We will be rotting in jail for perjury. The weapons of mass destruction existed but in President Bush's mind. He did not have the competence personally or competent civil servants who could tell him that it were a figment of his imagination. To this date he has not accepted the fact that he lied to the World and the people of the United States. For a born again Christian this behaviour is unbelievable but it is true. It appears that he does not have the conscience to apologise for all the big screw ups of his time.

The war in the Middle East has cost billions of Dollars, thousands of lies, and now the U.S. economic meltdown. This would not have happened if the President had made the right choices. It is the result of overspending, poor decision making and ignoring basic economic principles “do not spend more than you earn!” I doubt if this sequence of events would have happened if Al Gore had been elected president. Another Legacy of President Bush that will not be forgotten by historians.

The latest news coming from the White House show that President Bush is working hard to resolve and contain the effects of the” meltdown.” I do not see him or any other leader for taking responsibility for the mass. The meltdown has happened because of gross mismanagement and spending more than what is available. Sooner or later this was bound to happen. What do I see in the horizon? I see a rainbow and a pot of gold for the rich but higher taxes for the poor. I also see more prison time for people who refuse to fight in unpopular wars. I do not see President Bush resigning or serving time for the greatest and most successful lie that got caught. He has no conscience for the billions of wasted dollars or the thousands killed. He expects us to have a conscience. This is American justice and fairness.

At last the people of the United States are beginning to see through his lies. President G. W. Bush has the lowest Gallop Poll rating of any US President. He now wants Senator McCain to carry on with his policies. I hope senator McCain is able to disassociate from these failed policies.

Today it is 15th. August 2008. This is exactly two months and two weeks since my prediction. I estimate that my prediction is off by two to three weeks. Sorry, I got it slightly wrong. I am off by two weeks. Here is what is happening in Pakistan today.

Reuters reports from London are now pouring in. The reports state that:

1. President Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan will resign soon rather than face impeachment by Pakistan’s parliament. Musharraf was a close ally of the US who helped in the Regime Change in Afghanistan.
2. Senior Pakistani government officials are saying the a deal has been struck between the elected Government and Dictator Musharraf.
3. Dictator Musharraf had three requests. First, he requested that he be allowed to stay in Pakistan. Then he requested to be allowed to retire to his farm in Islamabad. Finally, he requested that there be no moves to prosecute him once he is out of office. This is very sad. This is very ironical. President Pervez Musharraf now expects the same rights as other ordinary citizens. The very rights he did not give to others like ex-Prime Minister Mr. Nawaz Sharif (elected) and former chief justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry.

I predicted his downfall on 2nd. June 2008.

I am now predicting that his requests will be granted initially. Once he has retired he will be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law. This is the state of Democracy in Pakistan. His fate will now be decided by a Former Prime Minister (Sharif) who was swept back into power by popular elections and by the former Chief Justice (Chowdhary). The former chief Justice is now flying to be in Islamabad to see the downfall of Musharraf.

President Musharraf did not deliver justice to the former Prime Minister and the former Chief Justice when he was in power. He will not get justice from them either. If President Musharraf wants to live a full life it will be best for him to leave Pakistan. He has too many enemies and they all want revenge “An eye for an eye”. They are now in power. Will they have the sense of “social justice and fairness” which Mr. Musharraf did not have when he was in power? My gut feeling is that “individually” each and every member has a social conscience but “collectively” people make more unjust and more risky decisions.

Picture 2 Mr. Nawaz Sharif waving good-bye to President Musharraf?

The background to this story: President Musharraf was a supporter of the Taliban in Pakistan. Under American pressure he stopped supporting the Taliban and joined the US in the War against Terrorism. He subsequently lost the elections in Pakistan. His enemies won. They now want revenge.

The current government of Pakistan is led by the party of assassinated Former Prime Minister Ms. Benazir Bhutto. She too was forced into exile by Mr. Musharraf. Now, that party is led by Ms. Bhutto’s son. I do not expect him or his party members to shed any tears over the predicaments of Mr. Musharraf.

Mr. Musharraf is a former army chief. He seized power in a 1999 coup from an elected Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. Mr. Sharif’s party too made substantial gains in the free and fair elections. Mr. Musharraf has been politically isolated since his allies lost the so called free and fair elections. Mr. Musharraf wanted to cancel these elections but the Americans forced him to honour his pledge to the people of Pakistan. These elections were held in February 2008. Though Mr. Musharraf’s party was routed in the elections Mr. Musharraf has managed to cling onto power with US support. The US would obviously deny this as this will amount to meddling in the internal affairs of another country.

Dictator Musharraf’s declining political fortunes have heightened concerns in the United States and among its allies about the stability of Pakistan. Pakistan and India became nuclear powers recently against US wishes. I have predicting that Iran will become a nuclear power against US wishes in the next six years. The article I am referencing to can be read here The US have been furthering their own interests in that region by granting India the rights to buy nuclear material even though India has not signed the “Nuclear Non-proliferation treaty”. It has given Pakistan billions of dollars in aid because Pakistan (through Dictator Musharraf) supported the American led, anti-Islam, war on terror.

Conclusion: President Bush and Prime Minister Blair cooked up the Weapons of mass destruction theory. They wrongly estimated that the people of Pakistan would support their ideas. The people of Pakistan have voted. Now it is time for America to sit back and respect the wishes of the people of Pakistan.

Barack Obama was born in Hawaii on the 4th day of August 1961. He graduated from Columbia University in 1983 and moved to Chicago in 1985 where he worked to help the poor improve their living conditions. He graduated from Harvard Law School in 1991 and became the first African American president of the Harvard Law Review.

Barack and Michelle are the spouses of one another and they have two school aged daughters from their marriage.

In 2004 he was elected to the Senate and was sworn into office on the 4th. Day of January 2005. He serves on many committees but I have selected to mention the few which will help propel him into the presidency later this year. He serves on the Health, Education, Labour and Pensions Committee. This committee oversees America's health care system and policies, education, (schools), employment, and retirement programs. He is a member of the Foreign Relations Committee. This committee oversees and directs American Foreign policy. Senator Barak Obama also serves on the Veterans' Affairs Committee which focuses on providing veterans the care and services they deserve for serving the US. From 2005 to 2006 he served on the Environment and Public Works Committee. This committee safeguards environmental interests and provides funding for highways.

Barack Obama won a grueling nomination process of the Democratic Party against my favourite candidate Ms. Hillary Rodham Clinton. Barack has dedicated his life to public service at different levels. He was community organizer and a civil rights attorney. He is still fighting for working families from his position of Senator of the State of Illinois.

Barack Obama was born on August 4th, 1961, in Hawaii to Barack Obama, Sr. and Ann Dunham. Obama graduated from Columbia University in 1983, and moved to Chicago in 1985 to work for a church-based group seeking to improve living conditions in poor neighbourhoods plagued with crime and high unemployment. In 1991, Obama graduated from Harvard Law School where he was the first African American president of the Harvard Law Review.

Senator Barack Obama will be the next President of the United States due to a combination of skills, the failures of President Bush, a weak and old Republican nominee who is entrenched in Viet Nam Era Politics.

Senator Obama will be elected as President of the United States this November unless he is assassinated. If he is assassinated then Senator McCain will be president of the United States.

At the start of the nomination process Senator Obama was just one of many candidates who had filed his papers to contest for nomination by the Democratic Party. Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton was the clear favourite. She had the largest amount of money, name recognition, a well lubricated election machinery, an ex-President of the United States, good looks, political connections, insider information and clout needed to clinch the nomination of the Democratic Party. In the end all this came to nothing because Senator Obama was able to better on each of these issues and had extra “political capital” to spare.

Political capital is a new term which means the goodwill, the emotional and dollar investment of the ordinary voter in a candidate standing for election. The key word “ordinary voter” as opposed to corporate supporters, lobbyists, and special interest groups. There is no direct data of this type which would support that Senator Obama will win the elections. However a review of incidental data like number of ordinary contributors and total dollars contribute suggest that Senator Obama is slightly ahead on this measure.

I note that both candidates are distancing themselves from lobbyists and special interest groups.

History of Age Factor

Average ages of elected presidents ranged from 55 to 59 years. Younger presidents were elected in turbulent times (for change) and older presidents were elected in economically stable times (for stability).

Senator Obama was born in 1961. He is now 47 years old. By comparison Senator McCain was born in 1936. He is now a fit 72 years old who is well past his prime and the legal retiring age. Will this be a factor during the voting process. My gut feeling is that it will be. I would not want a one term president. What age would he be when he comes up for re-election. Yes, he has lots of experience, connections and talks well in town hall formats. Do these abilities make him equivalent to a 47 year old?

My conclusion is that Senator Obama is more electable at this time. If the economy was good and the times were stable then Senator McCain may have a slight edge even though he is well past his prime. Right now the economy is not stable and the world is in political turmoil so Senator Obama is definitely more electable.

Senator McCain. Victim of connectedness to President Bush's Policies. If the economy was thriving and the world was politically stable then Senator McCain would have been more electable despite his age.

Political Connectedness

Today's voters are looking for the internet communicator, who can think of the future; is not connected to the past failures or a present failed president with a rating of the low thirties. Gunboat diplomacy worked in the Vietnam Era now is the time for nano diplomacy. Senator McCain has supported the failed policies of President Bush and Washington insiders. He has promised more of the same. This connectedness makes Senator McCain less electable even though he has more experience. In this context “the experience” and maturity are working against senator McCain.

Race Factor

Senator Obama is of mixed parentage. His father is a Black Kenyan from Nyangoma-Kogelo and his mother a White American form Wichita, Kansas. If the voting population voted along colour lines then Senator McCain is a clear winner. This is not likely to happen because American Society is becoming colour blind. The evidence for this is in the shopping complexes and in the fact that Senator Obama has reached where he has.

A cursory look at the people in shopping plazas will show that the numbers of mixed marriages, the number of Hispanics and the numbers of Black people is on the increase. This translates into acceptance of mixed marriages by the masses and more particularly by the younger American population. It is true that a “black” person has never been elected to office of the President of the United States. However, the changing demographics make it a real possibility for a Black person to be elected to this Office for the first time. Hence, on this factor I score Senator Obama as electable but Senator McCain the clear winner.

Senator McCain was born to both White parents in Panama an area under US Occupation. This is not an issue. Yes, being White gives him a significant advantage in a white “dominant society.” Senator McCain wins on this measure.

No US president has even been black or of black parentage. So Senator McCain is more electable. Given the changing demographics and the fact that “White US” is going to change to “Hispanic US” it is time for the top office to change hands to reflect the population demographics.

US Citizenship

If one were to follow what left wing and right wing media are reporting then both candidates would be ineligible to run for the presidency of the United States. Both candidates are eligible for this office and both have proven their credentials to the satisfaction of the average voter.

Both candidates satisfy this criterion but of course senator McCain now qualifies to be a senior citizen and will be entitled to discounts associated with being senior.

Honesty and Integrity

One does not need to be a psychologist to identify good behaviour and bad behaviours. Both candidates have shown maturity, integrity and honesty when dealing with substantial issues. The supporters of both candidates have gone a little beyond a reasonable call of duty (sometimes). My feeling is that these behaviours were due to over enthusiasm as opposed to deliberate manipulative intents.

Both teams have done well and continue to do a good job Both campaigns have been well run with good managers and crew.

Popular Support

Senator Obama is better received by bigger crowds of persons. Senator McCain's campaign has labelled this “celebrity status.” Senator McCain has been campaigning for a long time, he has lost the “celebrity status” because he has run out of new ideas. I conced I am guessing because I do not have statistics to support this view.

My conclusion is that Senator Obama has more new ideas, enthusiasm, and has nont sold out yet. Hence, he continues to get lots of popular support.

Popular Financial Contributors

Many people who honestly support a candidate are willing to make a small contribution to their chosen candidate. Both candidates have surpassed previous limits of political donations. Neither candidate is relying on government money to finance the election campaign.

Senator McCain has raised less money than Senator Obama. This is a good indicator of who has more support. Senator McCain has fewer supporters but his supporters have deep pockets. Obviously they will expect some form of payback.

Senator Obama's supporters are the masses and they too will expect a payback. Nothing is ever free. However, it is clear that Senator Obama has more grass roots support.

Voter Turnout

Poorer voters tend to vote less frequently than well heeled voters. So Senator McCain's supporters are more likely to vote. My conclusion on this point is that if senator Obama's election machinery can get the vote out then he can win the election because he has more grass roots support.

Drive and Enthusiasm

Senator Obama has more of this popular appeal. I guess this is due to the fact that he is new on the campaign trail and is comfortable talking with the masses. His job as a Lecturer in the Law School must be helping him in this area. Senator McCain has run out of steam and is not able to draw crowds.

Conclusion

This will be a closely contested election. There will be many ups and downs before the final count and the announcement. If Senator Obama is not assassinated then he will win and move into the White House next year. He will become the First Black President of the United States. With the shifting demographics he could be the first in a line of Black / Hispanic presidents. From another perspective, President George Bush will be the last White President in the White House of a White America. This is the beginning of a major demographic shift.

God Bless America!

 

Once elected Livni will need to be able to obtain the support of other parties which form part of the present Government. At this moment it is not certain if the new leader of Kadima (hopefully Livni) will be able to obtain the support of Kadima's allies. Without their support Kadima cannot stay in power. Labour, under the leadership of Defence Minister Ehud Barak is likely to support Ms. Tzipi Livni who has become one of the most powerful women in Israel since Prime Minister Golda Meir in the 1970s.

Tzipi Livni is currently the most powerful women in Israel since Golda Meir.

Livni has many obstacles to overcome in an effort to become prime minister. As a former intelligence officer and the leader of the Israel's team negotiating with Palestinians Livni is used to dealing with obstacles and delicate negotiations. Israeli polls show that Livni will win with a comfortable margin. Her closest rival is Shaul Mofaz who is a member of Kadima and the current minister of transport.

The precise reasons for Prime Minister Olmert's plans to resign are not clear. However the timing of the announcement would suggest that the repeated police questioning may have played a part. The allegations are that Prime Minister Olmert took bribes from an American businessman, made multiple (?duplicate) claims for travel expenses during his term as trade minister and as mayor of Jerusalem Additionally, Prime minister Olmert has been unpopular since his “defeat” in the one month war with Islamic radicals based in Lebanon. Finally, the inability of Israel to contain the Iranian situation i.e. their acquisition of nuclear technology for peaceful purposes is probably another factor leading him to consider this option. Ehud Olmert is currently seen as a weak Prime Minister and therefore his ability to make bold decisions is impaired. Resigning is a reasonable option because it will facilitate the emergence of a new leader with a new mandate who will have the support of the people and hence the legal authority to make and execute bold new decisions.

Prime Ministers do not usually step down for “no obvious reasons”. Other issues which must have propelled Olmert's decision to step down include the failure of the peace process with the Syrians. The end of the Blair Era and the near end of the Bush Era must feature prominently as key reasons for stepping down. The emergence of a new President in the U.S. is likely to impact US - Israeli relations. A new prime minister and a new US president will be better able to build a working relationship and deal with issues more effectively. I also feel that local political considerations have featured prominently in the Prime Minister's plan to step down even though Israeli elections are not due until 2010. I am sure that Olmert has taken local condition into consideration. There is a real possibility this governing Party (Kadima) formed by Former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon prior to going for elective surgery may not may survive the succession battle.

Many observers, both in Israel and Washington, are sceptical of Livni's ability to lead Kadima and to be able to govern after the leadership challenge. It is likely that the coalition will collapse and early parliamentary elections will be called. If this happens then Mofaz, former chief of defence is likely to have an easier time winning over the ultra-Orthodox Shas party. The support of Shas is essential if Kadima is to form a Government. With the support of Shas Kadima will obtain the 61 seats needed.

A call for elections will put the brakes on all negotiations even though elections are not due until 2010. Benjamin Netanyahu, a former prime Minister and critique of the peace process may aim to form a new government . He may be able to do this with the support of minor parties. I am predicting that in a tight contest between Netanyahu and Livni the latter is likely to prevail. Her management style, personality, ability to negotiate, and good looks will win the day. The left leaning Labour Party is likely to support Livni too.

Many readers and followers of current news would have noticed the first signs of the leveling of the playing field (war zone really) when Hezbollah outmaneuvered the Israeli army in the south of Lebanon. The Israeli casualties were higher then they were for the six day war of 1967. At the end of the six day war Israel had a lot of trophies and kudos. At the end of this war Israel did not have anything to show as a gain, not even a moral high ground. It had losses. And the losses continue. Over the last few days there have been media leaks which show that Israel is talking with its neighbors. All of its neighbors! It is not only talking with Syria, it is also talking with Hezbollah, the Egyptians and Iranians. When Israel was strong it considered Hezbollah a terrorist organization. Now that Israel is weaker it is beginning to make compromises to Hezbollah.

I predicted that it would be best for Israel to live in the Middle East in peaceful co-existence rather than as a bully with sophisticated technology. If Israel can respect and compensate the people of Palestine then a policy peaceful co-existence would not only be possible it would be a reality. There will be dividends for both groups of people. The days when superior technology facilitated the “conquest and subjugation” of other people, the losers, are long gone. In this day and age the losers quickly learn the art of warfare and soon get even. Suppressed people are more willing to fight back using the same technologies which had been used by the conqueror. In this day and age this is possible because information about the latest technology is easily available on the net. Further, most people have a basic level of education. The conquered person has more emotional energy and suppressed anger. It is for reasons like this that the conflict in the Middle East is not coming to an end. The end will come when the emotional energies and anger are neutralized. This can only happen through negotiations and peaceful co-existence. As the two sides, become more evenly matched then a negotiated settlement will be reached. Any negotiations which occur when the two opposing sides are not evenly matched are meaningless because the agreements reached are usually lob sided i.e. more favorable toward the winner.

My prediction number eight was that there will be no peace in the Middle East until the rights of the Palestinian People are restored. The United Nations, President Bush or Mr. Abbas do not have the right to give away lands which they do not own. It seems that Israel is slowly edging toward this position. Signs of this include the negotiations which are beginning to take place between Israel and its neighbors in the Middle East including Hezbollah, Hamas, Iran, Syria and Egypt.

Last but not least the current leadership of Israel is weak and there is a real possibility that these negotiations will not go anywhere. This does not mean that it is the end of the road. My prediction is that Hezbollah is getting stronger and it will continue to get stronger. Yes, Iran is getting stronger too and it is my prediction that Iran will make the atom bomb with in five years and that it will not threaten Israel. The present ground reality is that Iran is threatening Israel. The situation will change drastically once Iran has the atom bomb. My prediction is that Iran will have the atom bomb within six years if not sooner. I do not see Iran “giving up its right to make an atom bomb” even though America and Israel oppose it.

President Bush sent the US army into Iraq stating that there were weapons of mass destruction. He successfully convinced many governments that there were weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. It turned out to be a big lie, the biggest lie of modern times. I believe history will reflect upon it kindly. He has successfully manipulated that it was the fault of the CIA. Now, the whole truth is beginning to unravel. More truths will come out as his term comes to an end. His followers will be willing to speak out as he is losing power to become an ordinary citizen.

President Bush formed an unholy alliance with the UK, Australia, Pakistan, Poland, Japan, Italy, South Korea and a collection of other countries eager to win favour with the president. The BIG lie was sold to the United Nations in the guise of spreading democracy. Now let us look at the second goal for the Invasion of Iraq - To Promote Democracy. America has never supported true democracy. Can we trust the "kinder, gentler, conservative" to deliver democracy?

The second goal of the invasion was to promote democracy according to President Bush and Prime Minister Blair. This is what they said to the public and the United Nations. A closer look at these actions does not support the notion of democracy either. When Mr. Bush's fiends win, then it is democracy. When his foes win they are part of the "axis of evil". In the Gaza strip Hamas won the elections. President Bush does not support Hamas therefore they are a "terrorist organization".

Pakistanis Seeking Democracy

President Bush's sense of democracy is skewed. It is democracy when he agrees with it and it is not democracy when he does not agree with it. The people of Pakistan have chosen a new Government. President Bush conveniently continues to support President Pervez Musharraf. The results of the elections were clear. The people spoke but Mr. Bush seems to have not listened. American foreign policy has always paid lip service to democracy but it has continued to support Dictators like Pinochet of Chilli and Musharraf of Pakistan. It is for reasons like this that Americans are probably one of the most disliked people in the world. This is despite the fact that they send the largest amount of aid to the poor countries and are the only superpower.

The Big lie is now known to all. With the advent of improved communications other big lies will come to the open. It is only a matter of time. My prediction is that Musharraf will seek refuge in the US or UK within two months if not sooner. He has not been elected by the people and he has not right to govern in a democracy. If American support was not there he would have had the fate as of other dictators sooner.

 

There are many special interest groups in each and every country. They have useful functions in society. However, when these special interest groups are able to use their power to manipulate foreign policies of a major power then something needs to be done about it. This type of behavior is pathological i.e. like a cancer. Doing something or anything is not easy. First, the power concerned needs to be able to recognize that a problem exists. This is not likely to happen because America does not see anything wrong with its foreign policy. The scenario is not unlike a depressed person. The depressed person does not see that he/she is depressed even though every one else sees it (the depressed look). So it is not likely that American Foreign Policy will change in the near future.

To obtain a greater understanding of this point of view please see:

Face of Depression

Depression Two

Face of Depression Three

Picture: A Depressed President Bush. Failed foreign policies.

During the 1970s the fear of Communism took priority over all else. Human Rights and Human dignity were violated by both the Pro-communist lobby (mainly Russia, China and Cuba) and the American Armed Forces in the name of Democracy. Washington could not see that the entire country side was sympathetic toward the Viet Cong and the Communists. They were content with occupying their bases in big cities. Now too the Americans are not seeing that. Somehow, other countries and other people saw it then and are seeing it. Many countries that joined the war against “Weapons of Mass Destruction/ Saddam Hussein Regime/Lack of Democracy” have pulled out of the Coalition. Mr. Bush still does not see any error in his ways or any error in American Foreign Policy. Senator McCain actually says that The War CAN be won.

American Public opinion is against the war. British Public opinion is against the war. The writing is on the wall. It has been a long time since the Republicans won any seats but they still do not get the message. Lobbying of Senators and Congressmen must be stopped to give American foreign policy a fair chance at success. Some would argue that the opponents of special interest groups should form their own lobby and advance their point of view.

In the 1960s special interest groups including many US presidents were convinced that “the Communists” had to be stopped at all costs. American, British, and French might was not able to stop Communism. Yes, communism did fall eventually. Many groups and individuals in America would like to take credit for the fall of communism. However, I do not feel that any special person or group deserves any credit for the fall of communism, not even President Ronald Regan who is credited with ending the “Cold War”. I strongly feel that ordinary people were responsible for the demise of communism. The ordinary people of Viet Nam were responsible for the demise of America in Viet Nam. My prediction is the same for American Forces in Iraq. America is winning the big cities, the bases and the Green Zones. It is losing the hearts and souls of ordinary people. Eventually it is the ordinary people who will decide the outcome.

America is an occupying force in Iraq. The American Government is trying to say that they have been invited there by a democratically elected government. Ordinary people know the truth. Eventually, they will decide. The Americans did the same in Viet Nam. Somehow, American Presidents always think that ordinary people do not have brains and that they can manipulate them through the use of Press Conferences and the Media.

Manipulation takes many forms. The use of salaried soldiers and then saying that they volunteered to fight in the Middle East is a highly refined form of manipulation. Yes, paid soldiers are highly trained to fight wars using highly technical techniques. In the past occupation of land was the main goal. The present reality is that minds have to won too. Otherwise the war will be lost. America is winning the war of real estate but is losing the hearts and soles of ordinary people. I am predicting that America will lose the war in Iraq because it has lost the “Hearts and Souls of Ordinary People”. The Ordinary People of Iraq are intelligent people. They do not have military might to force the American Forces out of Iraq but they have more commitment then the American Forces have to win. They will use all other means to drive them out - just like the Vietnamese / Communists because they were born there and had loyalty to the land. The paid soldier works for (more or less) eight hours then clocks off and counts his dollars. The Freedom fighter is dedicated 24 hours each day, does not get paid and does not clock off. He waits and strikes at the right moment. Time is always on his side. Loyalty does not come from a pledge or from a certificate of competence to kill or shoot.

When a paid soldier dies the family mourns because it is a loss to the family and the country. Friends and family will think of avoiding war. Even if they felt that they supported the cause they may not be allowed to join the war for many other reasons. When a freedom fighter dies the situation is different. Friends and family members are often willing to take his place because they do not want his sacrifice to be in vain. So each time an innocent Iraqi dies there are others who are willing to take his place. Each time an American soldier dies others are put off by the thought of dying in a far-away-land. President Bush chose not to serve in Viet Nam for this very reason. However, he is now the commander in chief and is comfortable sending others to fight for the “?freedom” of others. In the long run it is the ordinary people who are going to win the war not the paid soldier.

Picture: American foreign policy in need of resuscitation. Nosocomial infections are killing it?

In order to predict the outcome of a war many analysists look at numbers of trained personnel, support staff, supply lines, tanks, ammunitions, numbers of fighter aircrafts, spying ability and night vision equipment and other capabilities. I concede that my analysis is completely different. Some will call my method insane. However, the proof is in the pudding, the result.

The world was led to believe that the war in Iraq was started to get rid of the Weapons of Mass destruction. There were none so there was nothing to get rid off. My analysis is that the war was started to protect the long term interests of Israel. Tel Aviv, using it's special interest groups, managed to convince Washington that the survival of Israel was at stake. Washington then went about manufacturing excuses to invade Iraq. Now they need to make a similar case against Iran. Iran is openly building the nuclear power stations with the view to manufacturing the atom bomb. However, my view is that Tel Aviv has overplayed it strength and will not succeed this time.

In conclusion, I am predicting that the following will be the end results of a faulty American foreign policy. The disasters could have easily been prevented by working on humanitarian issues (winning the minds of people) as opposed to winning wars and real estate. Human Minds are the where the power of the future will be not in real estate.

My Predictions

1. America will withdraw from Iraq within three years. They will do it in style, just like the British. First they will declare that they have achieved their objectives in Iraq. The world will be able to see the fall from grace. Popular press will not report it as a fall. They will be reporting as a planned draw down of forces.
2. The withdrawal will make Iran stronger in that region and it will damage America's global standing as a Global Power. New additional players in the Region will be Syria, Iran and Lebanon.
3. Iran and Iraq will become allies within five years to the detriment of American Foreign Policy and to the detriment of Israel.
4. Hezbollah has been gaining strength and will continue to gain strength. It will become the major player in the Middle East and subsequent negotiations with Israel.
5. Iran will make the Atom Bomb within six years and will not threaten Israel. It will not attack Israel.
6. After acquisition of the bomb Iran will become more reasonable will follow most main stream policies because there will be nothing to “proof”. The Atom Bomb is just another big boy's toy. It will allow Iran to be on equal footing with the big boys.
7. Israel will (at last) consider giving back lands to the Palestinians and allowing them to return to their lands. This will only happen when there is no other alternative or Israel. Prior to that I expect Israel to continue killing Palestinians and I expect the Palestinians to continue fighting for their lands.
8. There will be no peace in the Middle East until the rights of the Palestinian People are restored. The United Nations, President Bush or Mr. Abbas do not have the right to give away lands which they do not own.
9. Israel will have to change its policy to one of friendly coexistence or non-existence. White South Africa became a Black South Africa without any adverse effects.
10. Israel will become a Middle East Country in the Middle East. It will cease to be a satellite of Washington. This will happen within twelve years.

In a democracy, we let the People decide and once that decision is made we wait for the next election to "do better than the opposition”. However, for as long as the winners are in power we support them and respect them. Hamas won the popular vote. The election process was approved as legitimate. Mr. Bush and Mr. Blair needed to respect the decision of the Palestinian People. Mr. Abbas is a loser. He is a puppet propped up with American support and some floppy clauses of the constitution.

Mr. Bush and Mr. Blair are punishing the Palestinian people for voting for Hamas. This is not democracy. The Americans tried this policy in Viet Nam and failed. One cannot prop up a looser indefinitely. Sooner or later the chickens will come home to roost. The American Government is not concerned with the rights of the people; it is only interested in propping up their props.

Look at President Musharraf. The Americans support him. He came to power in a coup. He deposed an elected government. If the Americans were that interested with the rights of the people they would not have recognized him. Even now, there is a popular uprising against him but the Americans continue to support him.

The problem with American foreign policy is that it panders to Israeli concerns. The Muslim countries are divided along racial subgroups and therefore cannot help the Palestinian people though they would like to. They have the largest economic resources and are still failing to achieve fairly simple goals.

The invasion of Iraq was not to defend the human rights of the Iraqi people. It was to protect the interests of Israel because Saddam Hussein was getting stronger and bolder. The so called “Liberation of Kuwait” was to protect Israel from Saddam Hussein's desires. Now the Iranians are getting bolder and stronger. With their hands tied in Iraq the Americans cannot undertake another major operation. It is likely that the Iranians will prevail.

President Bush and Prime Minister Blair have great difficulty accepting the election results because their candidate Mr. Abbas did not win. They withdrew support for an elected government. This is a snub of the electoral process which both these men ask you and me to uphold. They are not in touch with ground reality.

American foreign Policy has always been anti-Arab and anti-Muslim. It is an open secret that the Americans helped Israel to develop the atom bomb. They are vehemently opposed to any Muslim country from developing the atom bomb because they see the “BOMB” as a threat to Israeli security.

The war on terror is being fought in Iraq and Afghanistan. The real terror is in the United States. Each year 108,694 people are killed by unintentional injuries and 31,647 people commit suicides. (based of 2004 figures). The number of people killed in the 9/11 attack is only a fraction of annual deaths from violence. President Bush has manipulated that situation to launch a war on Muslims. He manipulated his position by not participating in the Vietnam War, he manipulated the American electoral system and now he has manipulated the people of the world. The Guinness Book of Records may need to make a new entry - "greatest manipulator in the world".

A lasting solution in the Middle East will only occur when the rights of the traditional people of the land are reinstated. The people of Vietnam fought and won against an occupying force. The people of Iraq will win against the occupying force(s). Occupying forces consist of paid soldiers but freedom fighters are fighting for freedom. A course worth dying for.

It is great to hear that president Mahmoud Abbas will be president of the Palestinian People for another term. The irony of the situation is that he does not command a majority or has popular support. Yes, the Americans have agreed to lift their embargo. Sure it will be a morale boost to an ailing and nearly dead president.

Surely the Israelis would love to support him in the name of “true democracy” American Style. Approved by the Government of Israel. However, ground reality is that this effort will result in more blood shed. It is clear that Hamas has the physical power and authority. Hamas also has popular support. Sure, this is a pain to the Americans and Israelis.

Americans will always support “puppet governments” for short term, economic and political gains. They did this in Viet Nam and Chile. They are doing this in Poland, Afghanistan, and Iraq. Somehow, democracy to the Americans means “supporting the minority” which may be in the form of President Pinochet or President Musharraf. Neither of the ever held majorities or even held the resemblance of majority support.

No amount of Israeli or American people will prevent the people of the Palestine from achieving their goals of a true democracy. Not democracy as defined by President Bush or President Olmert. They were not elected by majorities and have very little understanding of true democracy. Sure they understand and have an in depth understanding of population manipulation, deceit and governing by dividing the masses.

The Americans know that Hamas seized control of Gaza last week. They know that Abbas has been routed. The only reason for the Americans to support Abbas is because he is more willing to be an Israeli puppet to concede more to Israel. The Americans and Israelis can control who is in power by playing politics but they cannot determine who wins. The final winners were the people of Chile and the people of Viet Nam. The foreign policy of America is flawed and will remain flawed.

It is true to say that the Hamas movement is poor and is made up of impoverished people. However, it must be stated that these people are more motivated so succeed than the power brokers sitting in Washington and Tel Aviv. These people are as motivated as the people of South Vietnam and Chile.

The recent violence has left the impoverished coastal strip increasingly isolated and the situation is likely to get worse for all the parties involved - U.S., Israel, and the Europeans. All need to understand the rule of majority and look for “win win” situations. The American and Israeli support for a minority government ignores ground reality.

The people who vote for Hamas expressed their desire to see Hamas in power. The sad fact is that America and Israel choose to recognize President Abbas who the loser of the elections. Blood shed will be the end result. This will only end when America and Israel recognize that the ordinary people have supported Hamas. Period.